About the FUNDAMENTAL REASON of economic crises (О фундаментальной причине экономических кризисов)
About the FUNDAMENTAL REASON of economic crises
(The research text - A. A. Fedyakov's opinion)
In the world continuously there is a discussion of the reasons of occurrence of a leaving economic crisis and measures on an exception of its repetition.
The great bulk of experts the crisis reasons names errors of a considerable part of proprietors in appointment of assessments of works of managers, their payment, groundlessness of the admitted risks by proprietors and managers from greed. There are other opinions I want to discuss the fundamental reason of economic crises. It, as it is known, consists in backlog of consumer demand from manufacture possibilities to give any goods and services. In the conditions of free competition it is difficult to avoid overproduction of the goods. But here's a fact. The USA, with the population of 300.000.000 persons consume 25 % of the goods and services made in the world. And if the rest of the world will be on the same level of consumption ( at the same level of satisfaction of secured income needs), the volume of demand will be 25%: 300.000.000 x 6.000.000.000 = 500%, i.e. the world can consume five times more than produces today. And, therefore, to avoid economic crises of overproduction of goods it is necessary to look for reasons why other world so lags behind in satisfaction of material requirements of the population of secured incomes.
In my opinion, the fundamental cause of economic crises of overproduction of goods and services is fundamentally lower interest of intellectually and creatively developed part of the world's population in the development and promotion of organizational and economic decisions directed on increase of consumer demand of the population, provided with incomes, particularly in the management of the society, in comparison with level of stimulus to working out and advancement of technical decisions to improve productivity and quality of goods and services. (The author believes that this economic opening)
Anyone can register technical decisions, protected by the patents, certificates for utility models and suggestions without restrictions.
And if they are used, the author(s) will obtain reward, which in democratic countries in some cases provide worthy material security of all subsequent life. For working out of the decisions directed on increase of incomes of broad masses of the population, increasing a consumer demand, nobody will give a dime.
Moreover, since such decisions are almost always provided with decrease in a share of profits of the most influential part of the population of the states the author in overwhelming majority of cases is exposed to pressure and prosecutions up to physical destruction. Improvement of the social aspects of society in all States, particularly in States with authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, is committed only under the pressure of population through sacrifice and deprivation of the most active authors and supporters of increase of incomes of the population. December 09, 2010.
Possibilities of improvement of management on an example of Russia are shown below by economic and social spheres of a society (Earlier the first variant of the mentioned below text under the name «New, additional criterion of democratic character of the country» has been directed on March, 17th, 2007 by e-mail to V. A. Ryzhkov, the deputy of State Duma and to all deputies of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly, including to representatives of Russia (to the Council of Europe), and on March, 19th, 2007 was sent by registered mail to V.A. Ryzhkov and to the Deputies of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly . Later material was sent to the chairman of the government of the Russian Federation, the president of the Russian Federation, The Kovrov State Technological Academy, Institute of economy of the
Russian Academy of Sciences, the All-Russian Social movement «For human rights», to newspapers: "Novaya Gazeta", "Moskovsky Komsomolets", Nezavisimaya Gazeta", "Pravda", "Tomorrow", "Financial Times" and " the Washington Post". No material was published and none of the newspapers did not respond.
Trying to earn by working out organizational decisions, I have sent officials of various level the letters with notices and specified that I have such decisions without disclosing of their essence. The part of these letters and one answer are presented in appendices 1 – 4. To my letters I received refusals in various forms. Except presented in appendices, I directed 3 letters to heads of administration of Kovrov (where I live), to Governors of the Vladimir and Samara areas, Mayors of St.-Petersburg and Moscow. Result of references is the same.
Everyone knows that in the country there are no resources for the operative decision of the collected problems. However officials of all levels reject offers to pay working out of decisions of problems even from the economy received from realization of offered decisions.
A. Why it occurs? Perhaps, practice has shown, that the citizens who are not officials, aren't capable to generate valuable organizational and economic decisions? In work «About ways of increase of system effectiveness of invention of the country», M, the INION, 1986 on p. 46 – 47 (deposited by Institute of economy of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR without remarks) is given by me the proof that the USSR during the period since January, 01, 1974 to January, 01, 1979 has received less on 13.900.000.000 roubles of economy ( than followed) in connection with the termination to accept, register and pay economic and organizational decisions in a national economy as rationalization. To realize the importance of this let me remind you that the construction costs of the house with 80 apartments ("khrushchovka") with all the communications in a midland of the European part of the country costed $ 1.000.000 roubles. In the house there were 20 one-room apartments with an area of 30 sq. m. and 60 two-room apartments of 42 sq.m. Each apartment was equipped with a gas stove, gas-water heater, bath with a shower and a toilet. The House has been calculated on 220 inhabitants providing for each 14,3 sq. m. The house has been calculated on 220 inhabitants with.
Thus, means for building the house have been half-received for 2.998.000 persons with providing of 14,3 sq. m. for the person, i.e. for 599.600 persons in a year. If to assume that the next years the volume of economy from use of organizational and economic offers would remain at level of 1979 (1.200.000.000 roubles) (and it is guaranteed would be increased), and earlier introduced offers would continue to be used, with January, 01, 1974 to June, 22, 1991 and earlier introduced continued to be used, with 01.01.74г. To 22.06.91г. (This day there was a governmental order No. 351 "about a recognition of organizational decisions in the enterprises rationalization) for 17,5 years the total effect would make (1,2 + 1,2 х 17.5): 2 х 17.5=194,25 billions roubles of purchasing capacity of rouble in 1979 when the official rate was 0,6 roubles per dollar.
At a reasonable expenditure of such means it was possible to avoid the economic problems which have led to disintegration of the country. By the time of disintegration the USSR has borrowed at the West about 85.000.000.000 US dollars.
Note: Data of the calculation set forth above shows that the major productive force in progress of life of a society are new decisions which are unworthy badly paid to true authors. It concerns as technical decisions, and especially to economic and organizational decisions.
The offer No. 1
1. To increase term of payment of compensations to authors under technical decisions to
the term established for authors of works of art, having entered notifying character of use of technical decisions outside of nowadays target date of action of the patent, the certificate on useful model or the efficiency proposal and to establish the fixed rate of commission
during this period.
The offer No. 2.
To equate offers on change of all decisions of the authorities, including laws and statutory acts to the rational offers useful to models and inventions, depending on degree of novelty of the offered decision.
B. Can be cleverer and more diligent today officials work at solving of problems so there is no possibility to other citizens to develop more economic decisions?
In magazine «the Russian Federation today» (the publisher the Federal meeting of the Russian Federation) No. 15, 2002 on p. 8 was informed that according to the independent international analytical organization the government of the Russian Federation is on 107 place on management efficiency state property from 158 surveyed countries and on 158 from 160 countries on state regulation. One of the most inefficient governments of the world! The former adviser of the president of the Russian Federation Andrey Illarionov asserted that because of not optimum and erroneous decisions of the government manufacture growth in Russia more low on 4 % annually in relation to the possible. Similar position and at level of regions and municipalities.
C. Opponents of offered system specify in open possibility to direct on consideration to the authorities their offers or to transfer them to mass-media. If offers efficient, the authorities implement them.
This offer has the following defects killing the initiative of citizens:
1. There are no legislative norms obliging officials to register offers, possibilities to challenge accepted unreasonable refused decision. There is no possibility to challenge accepted unreasonable refused decision. There are no positions about preservation of a priority of offers and etc.
2. If the offer will be implemented, the authorship is attributed in mass media to the persons who accept and implement the decision. As a rule, nobody mentions the true author. It is unfair. 3. material reward for realization of the effective offer obtain the officials, who received the decision on realization and realizing the offer, in the form of awards, increases in salaries, career growth and acquisition of image of the innovator, the fine business executive and guardian interests of the people …. The author will receive only the big efforts on punching of the idea and a lot of enemies (among officials and citizens whom loading increases and loss of illegal or unfair incomes threatens), capable till the end of life to spoil life of the author of the offer and its relatives.
And in modern Russia the persevering author can and destroy. For this reason the overwhelming majority of citizens doesn't apply efforts on working out of economic and organizational decisions, and available won't publish.
Citizens sometimes state the offers to officials of a various rank with whom they should solve questions by rules of an operating order. And officials give out these offers for its own (see the Governmental order No. 351 from June, 22, 1991, where affirms that functionaries of Council VOIR have suggested to consider organizational offers rationalization though I about it had written in work «About ways of increase system effectiveness of invention of the country», M, the INION, 1986, on p. 7). So the system of robbing citizens in questions of authorship of organizational, economic and other nontechnical decisions is created.
The same system is created in power structure where the right to publish the offered decisions, which are developed by employees, who occupy position below the first person, are given only to the first persons - to show ostensibly outstanding creative abilities of the first person of the organization or the state.
Elements of this system also are: restriction of the circle of persons, having the right of the legislative initiative that this circle of persons could take bribes from businessmen, firms, the organizations and associations which are interested in acceptance of certain laws. The people of bribes don't give, therefore, in my opinion, the legislation of the Russian Federation completely in interests of the richest people with consequences:
a) In Russia in the budget arrive only 36 % of profit on extraction of natural minerals, while in other countries from 68 % (in Venezuela) to 92 % (in Norway). That is, more than 32 % of profit on use of natural riches illegally officials transfer to the richest people of the country, I believe, not gratuitously;
b) the level of exploitation of workers in Russia is higher than in the developed world (salary below 18-22 times, and the performance just below 4.5 -5, "Narodnaya Gazeta", no. 16 (200), May 17, 2007, band 6, Gennady Semigin "property to return the people")
c) Population reduction on 500.000 persons per year (if to exclude the migrants who have obtained citizenship of Russia);
d) Half of the recruits who have received release in 2007 from military service under medical indications, has received release because of small weight, better to say, in connection with an exhaustion as a result of long undereating, i.e. starvation (from television interview of the official of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation) etc.;
- Absence of introduction of system of precedents in judiciary practice
- A standard of living of Russians on 63 place in the world etc.
D. Probably, someone was convinced by the data resulted in section "A" of given article.
Therefore we will consider, what in general creative potential of citizens of the country in the field of working out of economic and organizational decisions in comparison with potential of officials, having accepted obviously overestimated estimation that officials are the most creative people of the country.
On the schedule ( Fig. 1) is represented the distribution curve «Р» numbers of citizens «N» depending on creative potential «Т» in the field of working out of any decisions in well-known fields of knowledge and activity, it is a law of distribution of the mass phenomena, described by curve Gaussa. Let's accept the maximum creative ability of the adult citizen for "A" and we will construct in an isometry potentially possible volume of decisions, for example, estimated in possible economic benefit of their use.
Officials make roughly 1 % of the amateur population of the country, and they will create volume of creative decisions V1. Citizens – not the officials having higher education, make roughly 10 % of the amateur population and will create volume of creative decisions V2. 50 % of citizens without officials other citizens – V4 will create volume V3. From the figure it is visible that V1:V2:V3:V4 correspond roughly as 1:7:30:13!! That is, the creative potential not officials surpasses potential of officials roughly in 50 times!!! (The author considers it as economic opening).
And this fantastic potential of citizens isn't used in interests of the people because of egoism of officials of the country, first of all the selected. I believe, close parities are fair for all countries of the world, the separate enterprises and the organizations.
Certainly, opponents can object that the model gives a qualitative picture, instead of precisely mathematically verified picture on the basis of researches. But the qualitative model is so indicative that gives the absolute grounds for conclusions, decision-making and actions. What will change, if the specified parity is, for example 1:5:20:5? All the same there will be an excess in 30 times.
Yes, as soon as in the country will be entered the system of registration , considerations, uses and payments of working out economic, organizational and in general any offers directed on perfection of functioning of a society with payment not below than 20 % of economic benefit in first 2 years of use, so the above represented picture of creative return will be visible to all.
It becomes clear that exclusiveness and indispensability of officials of all levels, including the president is a composed and diligently supported by them myth. They also are afraid of exposures of this myth. They are afraid also that citizens will offer the decisions essentially reducing possibilities of reception of bribes and other possibilities of illegal enrichment.
The above the level of development of intelligence and creative abilities of the amateur population of the country, the is more parity of creative potential not officials in the relation to potential of officials. If to assume that all mentally normal population of the country are geniuses (scientists by 1985 have come to opinion that some child born mentally normal, can develop the abilities to level of the genius), a parity of total intelligence and creative potential of not officials to intelligence and creative potential of officials will reach 99.
Taking into account that intelligence and creative potential of officials, absolutely precisely, not the highest in the country, and also taking into account presence of restrictions on promotion of candidates on elective offices, uses of an administrative resource, falsification of results of voting and other not democratic receptions leading to essential decrease of creative potential of selected officials (not selected officials are appointed on acquaintance, protection and for bribes, and held competitions on replacement of posts are transformed into a farce), a parity of intelligence and creative potential not officials to intelligence and creative potential of officials can reach 100 and more.
E. For absolutely doubting in possibilities of not officials, I will result a number of indicative examples of the revolutionary decisions developed by nonprofessionals in various branches of human activity. Here they:
- Watchman Livenguk has invented a microscope and has opened to people a microcosm!
- The Greek teacher (the teacher, instead of the research assistant of philosophy institute) Aristotle has developed base positions of philosophy, ethics and logic, a deductive method of knowledge and the proof;
- The English judge Bacon has formulated an inductive method of reasonings, conclusions and knowledge;
- The collector of taxes of Paris Lavoisier has opened the law of preservation of masses at chemical reactions and transformations;
-The Russian school teacher Konstantin Tsiolkovsky has developed the nowadays realized theory of flights in space.
Readers can result their examples of such kind.
And last example: I am, 72 years old pensioner who does not have scientific degrees and ranks, represent to the world, I believe, opening of the fundamental reason of economic crises, importance of use of creative potential of all citizens in the field of working out of any decisions directed on perfection of life of a society and payment to authors of their work on working out of used decisions.
And in 1985 in work «About ways of increase of system effectiveness of invention of the country», the M, the INION, 1986 has given proofs :
1. Presence in the USSR, ostensibly the socialist country, fantastic operation of the person at robbery level – to millions inventors and rationalizers paid for the confirmed economic benefit of use of inventions and efficiency proposals in 1000 times less than for average work in the country (in 1991 the law on patents compensation for inventions have increased in tens times);
2. A basic inaccuracy of a principle of selection of candidates on assignment of ranks of heroes of socialist work (since then don't award workers a rank «the Hero of work») and rewarding by other awards;
3. Losses in the economy, stated in section "A" of given article. The decision of Ministerial council of the Russian Soviet Federal Socialist Republic No.351 from June, 22, 1991 organizational decisions according to my recommendation (see p. 7 «About ways of increase of system effectiveness of invention of the country» , the M, the INION, 1986) began to admit rationalization.
4. In 1996 in the brochure «the Reference to reason of Russians …», (it is published in Vladimir) I have given the proof of a basic inaccuracy of positions of the communistic theory about dictatorship of proletariat and a supervising role of working class (thereby has denied K.Marx and V.I.Lenin's statements), and so is given reason that in 2 months of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has excluded these positions from the program documents. The communist party of China has made it in August, 2006.
5. In the same place the proof of absurdity of formulas of a socialism – «from everyone on the abilities is given, to everyone on work» and communism – «from everyone on the abilities, everyone on requirements».
6. In the same work my working out in the field of pedagogics – «the Tree of the purposes of the person, ways and means of their achievement» is resulted.
7. Besides, I develop an original technique of definition of value of inventions and other decisions in money terms on which there are no economic benefit design procedures.
And I have no special economic education and never worked as the economist. I am the mechanical engineer on devices of exact mechanics by training (I have 4 inventions without coauthors).
The population of only pensioners in Russia is 38000000, much of which has higher education. Very many of them would connect to the search for creative solutions of the country`s problems, if the proposed payment system will be introduced to any decisions.
F. The system of gathering, registration, consideration, use and payment of authors not
technical decisions (for technical decisions already this system is) is an new indicator of democratic character of the country, additional to a freedom of speech. And it not simply indicator. This inclusion of nowadays not used fantastic creative potential of the population of the country in process of perfection of all spheres of human activity. Inclusion of this productive force will essentially accelerate progress in all spheres of life of people at the minimum expenses. The population already has creative abilities, and at introduction of fair payment of use of economic and organizational decisions people will specially develop them.
Intelligence inclusion of most part of population in perfection of most part of national economy (an economy private sector) provides advantage of the countries with market economy before so-called socialist economy where all decisions only officials accept ,whose interest and responsibility for results of the accepted decisions is essentially more low than at proprietors.
G. I believe, opponents will object that the quantity of offers will be so much that because of necessity of their consideration officials will have no time to carry out the nowadays existing duties. There are already today such stream of papers that without consideration of offers of citizens officials haven't time to read them.
Yes, in the beginning there will be many offers. But then the number of creative decisions will essentially decrease, if requirements to registration of such decisions are entered, similar to requirements to rational offers, and earlier submitted offers will give all the best in the Internet. Expenses for maintenance of offered system will be in thousand times less economic benefit of use of offers not officials.
And again let's compare to technics manufacture. In the world it is made more than 24.000.000 names of the industrial goods. On everyone (except substances) there are the design drawings reflecting great variety of systems, assemblages (devices), details and container. For their manufacture including substances, are developed and realized technologies, and in them operations and transitions, designs of the tool, equipment, means of test to thousand on one product. And on all this fantastic quantity of designs and technologies a lot of offers continuously moves on their perfection. And everyone is considered in the conditions of a competition very interestedly. And officials in the totalitarian state where they don't admit others to the power, don't wish to consider the offer of citizens. The offered system is dangerous to them. Who considers that it is impossible so to work, let will leave. Others who considers will come that such working conditions are comprehensible.
The people under the Constitution is a source and the sovereign power the authorities in the country, he should solve a question of use of this working out on elections of selected officials. The one who will include a guarantee of introduction of offered system in an electoral programme, for those the people should vote.
In summary I express a wish: if the offered system is entered into Russia, that, as compensation for the given working out, I ask to give me a priority on first ten numbers of registration of such offers.
(Article text – a statement of opinion of A. A. Fedyakov) Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Fedyakov Alexey Andreevich, living to the address: 601903, the Vladimir region, Kovrov, born in 1939, the higher technical education, a pensioner.